Ep. 2753 Where Did Trump's Poll Numbers Go?
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In this episode of The Tom Woods Show, host Tom Woods interviews Rich Barris, chair of the National Association of Independent Pollsters and co-author of the forthcoming book *Burn It Down*, to dissect the sudden decline in Donald Trump's poll numbers despite continued support for his foreign policy goals. Barris argues that many mainstream polls are misleading due to partisan sponsorship and flawed methodologies, citing examples like a CBS News poll claiming 98% MAGA support for the Iran war while simultaneously showing Trump's popularity plummeting among white working-class independents. He emphasizes that true independent pollsters are defined not by ideology but by financial independence from political entities, and warns that internal campaign polls often serve agendas rather than truth. The episode explores how Trump’s pivot from domestic-focused promises to a foreign war—particularly in Iran—has alienated his base, who voted for him to end endless Middle Eastern conflicts. Barris attributes the drop in Trump’s numbers not to the war itself being unpopular, but to the betrayal of a core promise, with voters expressing deep disappointment rather than anger. He also discusses the generational divide in political engagement, noting that younger voters are more ideologically driven but less likely to turn out, while older voters consistently vote in high numbers. The conversation culminates in a call to action: Republicans must confront the reality that their current coalition is fracturing and that without addressing systemic failures and reconnecting with disillusioned voters, they risk losing both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms. The episode closes with a strong endorsement of Barris’s book, which argues that voters are demanding a complete overhaul of the political and economic system—hence the title *Burn It Down*.
Mainstream polls are often misleading due to partisan sponsorship and flawed methodology; true independence comes from financial separation from political actors.
Trump’s decline in popularity is not due to the war in Iran being unpopular, but because he betrayed a core campaign promise to end endless foreign wars.
Voters are expressing disappointment, not anger—indicating they still believe in Trump’s vision but feel let down by his actions.
Younger voters are more ideologically aligned with Trump’s anti-establishment message but are less likely to vote; their turnout is a critical political challenge.
Republicans risk losing both chambers in the midterms unless they break from the status quo and address the systemic failures that have alienated their base.
…and 2 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Myth of Consensus Polls: Why Trump's Numbers Are Misleading
“There's no subgroup that large, even though MAGA is kind of shrinking right now. There is no subgroup that large, folks, where you're going to get 100%.”
What Makes a Pollster Truly Independent?
Barris explains that independence in polling is defined not by ideology but by financial independence from political campaigns, media outlets, or candidates. He critiques joint polls like NBC-Hart Research for having partisan ties.
The Dangerous Illusion of Internal Campaign Polls
The episode examines how internal campaign polls are often used to boost donor morale and create a rosier picture than reality, especially in high-stakes races like presidential elections. Barris notes that both Trump and Harris’s internal polls showed Trump winning in 2024.
The Real Reason Trump’s Popularity Is Falling
“The average person isn't going to remember some campaign stop... They remembered him running against political dynasties... and especially in the Middle East.”
The Generational Divide: Young Voters and the Forgotten Coalition
Barris discusses how younger voters, especially under 50, are more likely to support Trump than older demographics, but their turnout remains low. He argues that the system is designed for boomers, not younger generations.
“They would love it if you just broke the housing market. They would. They would love it if you crashed a housing market and homes were actually affordable for them.”
“There's no third road here. There's going to be one of these two that we pick.”
“The average person isn't going to remember some campaign stop... They remembered him running against political dynasties... and especially in the Middle East.”
Host
Guest
Donald Trump
person
Rich Barris
person
Tom Woods
person
Iran War
other
J.D. Vance
person
CrowdHealth
organization
Epstein
person
Tucker Carlson
person
CBS News
organization
Kamala Harris
person
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