Moran Zaga: The Gulf states react to humiliation by Iran

In this episode of Laser Focus, host Laser Berman explores the evolving dynamics between Gulf states and Israel in the aftermath of the June 2025 war with Iran. Featuring expert Dr. Moran Zaga from the University of Haifa and Mind Israel, the discussion examines how Gulf countries—ranging from the UAE and Bahrain to Saudi Arabia and Qatar—viewed Israel before the war, their reactions during the conflict, and their post-war aspirations. Zaga highlights that while the UAE and Bahrain had established warm, people-to-people ties with Israel, these relationships were strained by Israeli actions in Gaza and the Palestinian issue. The war, particularly Iran’s missile and drone attacks on all Gulf states, delivered a profound shock, shattering any lingering sense of security or trust in Iran. The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, were criticized for their lack of visible leadership during the crisis, despite their regional ambitions. Zaga argues that the war has created a shared enemy narrative, but that normalization with Israel remains unlikely without political changes in Israel—including a more moderate government, improved relations with the Palestinians, and a shift in public perception of Netanyahu. The episode also touches on the Gulf’s growing anxiety about the Strait of Hormuz blockade and their demand for stronger U.S. security guarantees. Key takeaways include: (1) Iran’s attacks on Gulf states created a collective sense of humiliation and betrayal, fundamentally altering regional trust; (2) Saudi Arabia’s absence during the war revealed a lack of regional leadership despite its ambitions; (3) Gulf states now demand stronger U.S. security commitments and are pushing for a more durable post-war regional architecture; (4) normalization with Israel remains contingent on political and diplomatic progress in Israel, not just shared threats; and (5) social media and youth voices in countries like Kuwait and Bahrain are beginning to challenge regime stability, signaling potential long-term political shifts. The overall sentiment is cautiously urgent, with a mix of strategic realism and concern about future regional stability.