John Spencer: US can force open Strait of Hormuz if it decides to

In this episode of The Times of Israel Daily Briefing, host Laser Berman engages military strategist John Spencer to assess the aftermath of a 39-day conflict involving Israel and the United States against Iran. The conversation centers on whether the war constitutes a victory, with Spencer cautioning against premature judgments amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations. While U.S. and Israeli officials claim significant military achievements—such as the destruction of 80% of Iran’s air defense, 90% of its navy, and major missile infrastructure—Spencer argues that victory cannot be declared until strategic goals are fully met and the post-war settlement is realized. He highlights the lack of clarity around Iran’s leadership, the ambiguity of negotiated terms, and the risk of repeating past patterns where military success is undermined by political compromises. Spencer also debunks the myth that the U.S. lacked plans to open the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that such scenarios have been rehearsed for years. He critiques Iran’s strategy of attacking multiple nations simultaneously as counterproductive, which instead validated the necessity of the operation. Looking ahead, Spencer emphasizes that the U.S. and Israel hold leverage through economic sanctions and the control of Iran’s nuclear program, while cautioning that Iran may seek survival over victory. The episode concludes with a forward-looking discussion on the deepened military alliance between the U.S. and Israel, which Spencer views as a transformative development with long-term strategic, technological, and geopolitical benefits.