Israel Wants "Decisive Victory" in Iran. Is It Succeeding?

This episode of The Journal examines Israel's military campaign against Iran, launched over a month prior, and evaluates whether it has achieved its three stated goals: reducing Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities, and facilitating regime change. Initially, Israel and the U.S. achieved rapid tactical success, including a decapitation strike that killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and key military figures, followed by widespread bombing of air defenses, security forces, and industrial infrastructure. Despite these advances, the war has stalled in its strategic objectives. Iran’s regime remains intact, with Khamenei’s son named successor, and no mass uprising has occurred—due in part to severe repression and threats of violence against dissenters. Iran still possesses a stockpile of ballistic missiles and enriched uranium, and it has gained leverage by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has shifted focus to weakening Iran’s economy by targeting steel production, aiming to buy time for long-term pressure. Meanwhile, Israel faces growing strain on its missile defense systems, and its military is now also heavily engaged in a parallel conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. remains involved but unclear on its long-term strategy, with President Trump signaling both a quick end and potential escalation. The episode concludes with a critical assessment: while Israel has inflicted significant damage, it has not achieved a decisive or lasting victory. Key takeaways include: 1) Israel has degraded Iran’s military capabilities but not eliminated its threat; 2) Regime change remains unachieved due to internal repression and regime resilience; 3) Targeting Iran’s economy and infrastructure is a strategic move to prolong pressure; 4) Israel’s missile defense resources are being rationed, raising long-term vulnerability; 5) The war in Lebanon remains a major, ongoing front; 6) U.S. strategy is inconsistent, creating uncertainty; 7) Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz gives it significant geopolitical leverage; 8) The campaign’s success hinges on long-term economic and political pressure, not just military strikes.