How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region

This episode of The Horn explores how the ongoing war involving Iran is reshaping the geopolitical and economic landscape of the Horn of Africa and the broader Middle East. Hafsa Halawa, a senior analyst from the International Crisis Group, details the cascading effects of the conflict, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure, which could cripple global energy and food supply chains. The Horn of Africa faces severe risks including fuel and electricity shortages, soaring inflation, food insecurity, and a collapse in remittances due to Gulf states retrenching amid economic strain. Halawa emphasizes that Gulf engagement in the region is increasingly driven by national security concerns rather than mere competition, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverging in their strategic approaches. The war also exacerbates existing tensions in Sudan, Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, and the Somaliland recognition issue, as Israel's expanding military footprint in the Red Sea is viewed as a direct threat to regional stability. The episode concludes with a warning that the conflict has created a highly interconnected security space, where actions in one area reverberate across the entire region. Key takeaways include: 1) The closure of key straits like Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb threatens global energy and food security, with the Horn of Africa bearing disproportionate risk; 2) Gulf states are shifting from strategic competition to inward-looking, security-driven policies, which will reduce financial support to African economies; 3) The war is accelerating the militarization of the Red Sea, with Israel’s actions in Somaliland and U.S. military presence raising alarms across the region; 4) Regional powers like Egypt and Turkey are reacting to the crisis with limited strategic foresight, increasing the risk of future conflict; 5) The war has exposed deep divisions within the Gulf, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, undermining regional cooperation. The overall sentiment is one of cautious urgency, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities and the urgent need for coordinated, long-term planning.