Operation Epic Fury: Is that it?

The Foreign Desk examines the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury, a U.S.-led military campaign against Iran under President Donald Trump, questioning whether the conflict constitutes a strategic victory. Experts including Suzanne Maloney of Brookings, Anshol Pfeffer of The Economist, and Renard Mansour of Chatham House argue that while the U.S. and Israel achieved tactical successes—such as degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and decapitating its leadership—the broader strategic goals, including regime change and securing the Strait of Hormuz, remain unmet. Iran has maintained control of the Strait, demonstrated its ability to disrupt global oil flows, and emerged with a strengthened Revolutionary Guard-led 'Third Islamic Republic' that feels emboldened by its resilience. Meanwhile, Israel’s war aims have stalled, its public support is not synonymous with backing for Netanyahu, and its military operations in Lebanon appear increasingly constrained by U.S. pressure. The episode underscores growing disillusionment among allies, domestic political risks in the U.S. and Israel, and the long-term economic and diplomatic fallout, including a potential shift in Gulf state foreign policy toward multi-alignment. The war has also reignited concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, even as the Supreme Leader’s fatwa remains in place. Key takeaways include: 1) Trump’s military campaign failed to achieve regime change or lasting control of the Strait of Hormuz; 2) Iran’s military and political elite have consolidated power under the Revolutionary Guard, creating a more hardened 'Third Republic'; 3) Israel’s war aims are unfulfilled, and Netanyahu’s political survival depends on maintaining a facade of unity with Trump; 4) Gulf states are deeply anxious but still reliant on U.S. security; 5) The U.S. public remains confused and alienated by the war’s lack of clear objectives; 6) Global supply chains are disrupted, with long-term economic consequences; 7) Iran may now be closer to a nuclear breakout capability due to the erosion of diplomatic constraints; 8) The war has fundamentally altered the regional balance of power, with no clear path to peace.