Who Runs Iran?

The U.S. is locked in a high-stakes geopolitical standoff with Iran, but the real battle isn't on the battlefield—it's within Iran's own power structure. According to Fred Kagan of the Critical Threats Project, a hidden power struggle is unfolding between Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagheri-Golabov, who appears to be negotiating on behalf of Iran, and Ahmad Vahidi, the hardline commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force. Despite Golabov’s public statements—like declaring the Strait of Hormuz open—Vahidi and his network have repeatedly overruled him, even firing on ships to assert control. This suggests that U.S. negotiators are talking to a figure with no real authority, while the actual decision-makers are the military hardliners who view nuclear capability as non-negotiable. The U.S. air campaign has inflicted massive damage, but Iran’s ability to disrupt global shipping through the Strait remains a potent asymmetric threat. Kagan argues that the U.S. must shift strategy: not to seek regime change, but to demonstrate that it can reopen the Strait at will—proving that Iran cannot hold the world hostage. This would force Iran into a position where the cost of continued resistance outweighs the benefit, even if nuclear material remains in Iranian hands.