Orbán Rigged the Game—and Still Lost

This episode of The Bulwark examines Hungary's surprising election outcome, where Viktor Orbán—once seen as a model of post-liberal governance—was defeated after 16 years in power. Dalibor Rohatch of the American Enterprise Institute dissects how Orbán consolidated authoritarian control through constitutional changes, media manipulation, and the suppression of opposition, while simultaneously cultivating global alliances with figures like Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and Vladimir Putin. Despite being hailed by the American MAGA movement as a defender of Western values, Orbán’s rule failed to deliver on core conservative promises: Hungary’s population declined, church attendance remained low, and cultural policies on immigration, abortion, and LGBTQ+ rights were largely permissive. The episode argues that Orbán’s downfall stemmed not from weakness, but from overreach—his embrace of globalist ambitions and client-state ties to Russia and Iran alienated ordinary Hungarians focused on economic hardship and national dignity. The defeat of Orbán, Rohatch suggests, was a triumph of grassroots mobilization led by the energetic and pragmatic Peter Magyar, who united a fractured opposition by focusing on domestic issues rather than ideological theater. Key takeaways include: Orbán’s authoritarianism was real and systemic, not symbolic; Hungary’s EU membership imposed limits on his power, but also created leverage; the MAGA admiration for Orbán is based on a misreading of his actual policies; the opposition’s victory was due to personal leadership and focus on economic grievances; and Orbán’s globalist aspirations ultimately undermined his domestic legitimacy. The episode concludes with a warning: the illusion of Hungary as a conservative bulwark is dangerous, and its collapse reveals the fragility of illiberalism when disconnected from the people it claims to serve.