Nobody Believed Orbán Could Lose. Then It Happened. (w/ H. David Baer)

In this episode of The Bulwark, host Bill Kristol is joined by H. David Baer, a professor of theology and philosophy and longtime observer of Hungarian politics, to discuss the seismic political shift in Hungary following the unexpected defeat of Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power. Baer highlights how Peter Magyar, the leader of the opposition party Tisza, not only won the election but has swiftly moved to dismantle Orbán’s illiberal regime by appointing a new, non-partisan cabinet, demanding resignations from key officials including the president and constitutional court leadership, and launching a nationwide effort to create a new constitutional settlement through grassroots participation. Baer emphasizes that Magyar’s approach is not merely about restoring normalcy but about systemic transformation—what he calls a 'constitutional moment'—inspired by the need for legitimacy and popular buy-in, in contrast to Orbán’s top-down constitutional changes. The episode draws parallels to potential future challenges in the United States, particularly in the event of a post-Trump political realignment, where similar questions about how to rebuild democratic institutions without undermining the rule of law arise. Baer stresses the importance of learning from Hungary’s experiment in democratic renewal, especially the power of grassroots mobilization through local 'Tisza circles' and the delicate balance between radical reform and constitutional continuity.