Is U.S. Policy Hurting Cubans More Than the Regime? (w/ Juan Gonzalez)

In this episode of The Bulwark, host Jon Avalon interviews Juan Gonzalez, a former National Security Council staffer with deep expertise in Latin America, to dissect the Trump administration's foreign policy approach in Central and South America—particularly regarding Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba. Gonzalez argues that the administration’s coercive strategy, driven by a desire for regime change and resource access, has failed to account for long-term consequences, leading to instability without sustainable outcomes. He critiques the lack of coordination with allies, the underestimation of Iran’s ability to disrupt global oil markets via the Strait of Hormuz, and the flawed assumption that Venezuela’s oil and gas reserves can quickly benefit U.S. energy security. While acknowledging some progress in stabilizing Venezuela under Delcy Rodríguez, Gonzalez warns that the administration’s focus on oil and migration risks sidelining democratic transition and marginalizing opposition leaders like Maria Corina Machado. He contrasts this with the Biden administration’s democracy-first approach, highlighting a dangerous shift toward resource-driven interventionism. The conversation turns sharply to Cuba, where Gonzalez contends that U.S. policy—particularly the embargo—may be doing more harm than the Cuban regime itself. He draws a parallel between Cuba’s current humanitarian crisis and Haiti’s collapse, emphasizing the brain drain and deteriorating living conditions. While Rubio and other hardliners view Venezuela as a stepping stone to change in Cuba, Gonzalez warns this strategy is shortsighted and potentially counterproductive. He stresses that without a clear democratic vision, U.S. intervention risks entrenching authoritarian pragmatism over genuine reform. The episode underscores a broader theme: foreign policy driven by immediate gains often undermines long-term stability and democratic aspirations.