Is the ceasefire in Lebanon all but over?

The Briefing explores the fragile state of the ceasefire in Lebanon, where ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket attacks have rendered the truce effectively non-functional despite diplomatic efforts. Nada Makurand Atala, National's Beirut correspondent, describes a humanitarian crisis in southern Lebanon, with over 380 deaths, widespread destruction, and a quarter of the population facing acute hunger. Hezbollah's use of cheap, jamming-resistant drones has frustrated Israeli forces, though military superiority remains unchanged. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz marks his first year in office with record-low approval ratings and a stagnant economy, despite initial promises of reform. Economist Karsten Brzezki attributes this to structural challenges like high energy costs and Chinese competition, as well as political gridlock within Merz’s coalition. In Romania, a minority government led by Prime Minister Ilja Bolozhan has fallen after a no-confidence vote, with the Social Democrats aligning with the far-right Union of Romanians—raising alarms across Europe about the future of pro-EU policies and Romania’s role in NATO and Ukraine support. The Venice Biennale opens amid geopolitical turbulence, with the jury resigning over ICC-related boycotts of the Israeli and Russian pavilions, and Iran withdrawing last-minute, underscoring how global conflicts permeate cultural spaces. Despite these tensions, standout artistic exhibitions by Michael Armitage and Lorna Simpson offer moments of creative resilience. Key takeaways include: 1) The Lebanon ceasefire is largely symbolic, with continued violence and humanitarian collapse; 2) Hezbollah’s drone campaign is a low-cost, high-impact tactical challenge for Israel; 3) Germany’s economic stagnation stems from structural issues and coalition infighting; 4) Romania’s political shift toward far-right alignment threatens EU cohesion and policy continuity; 5) The Venice Biennale reflects global tensions through artistic protest and public engagement; 6) Diplomatic progress remains elusive without tangible security guarantees; 7) Cultural institutions are increasingly caught in geopolitical crossfires; 8) Public participation in art awards may redefine legitimacy in times of crisis.