What Next - What If the US and Iran Are Both Losing?

This episode of Slate's What Next examines the fragile and rapidly deteriorating ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which has failed to halt violence—particularly in Lebanon—despite high-level diplomatic efforts. Host Mary Harris, joined by Middle East correspondent Greg Karlstrom, dissects the chaotic, ad-hoc nature of the negotiations, highlighting how the U.S. and Iran may have agreed to different versions of the ceasefire, leaving key issues like Lebanon’s inclusion unresolved. The episode underscores the central role of the Strait of Hormuz, where both sides are now locked in a high-stakes standoff: the U.S. threatens a naval blockade to force Iran to reopen the strait, while Iran leverages its control over the chokepoint as a strategic weapon. The economic consequences are already being felt globally, with energy markets destabilized and countries like the UK and Asian nations facing fuel shortages. Despite the Trump administration’s brinkmanship and public posturing—such as Trump attending a UFC fight while diplomacy stalled—real progress remains elusive. The episode also explores the deeper implications: Iran’s survival in the war may be seen as a victory, but its infrastructure has been devastated, and its economy is on the brink. Meanwhile, the U.S. risks long-term strategic overreach by breaking the taboo of direct attacks on Iran, potentially destabilizing the region for decades. The possibility of a soft landing—such as unlocking frozen Iranian funds in exchange for temporary strait access—offers the only realistic path forward, but even that seems unlikely given the current momentum toward escalation.