The Big 3: HOG, WMT, MRVL

The Schwab Network's 'Big 3' episode spotlighted three high-conviction trades in HOG, WMT, and MRVL amid a market rally that precisely matched options pricing expectations. Don Kaufman, co-founder of TheoTrade, argued that Harley-Davidson’s recent strength has outpaced statistical expectations, signaling a potential near-term pullback—leading him to deploy a shallow-time $2-wide put spread on April 24th options for a 75-cent debit. Walmart, meanwhile, is positioned as a defensive play now at risk of reversal if geopolitical tensions ease, prompting Kaufman to sell a May 15th $120/$115 put spread for $1.30 debit, betting on a rotation out of consumer staples. In a sharp pivot, Kaufman turns bullish on Marvell, citing a retail-driven gamma squeeze in call options that could ignite a breakout past $120. He recommends a June 18th $125/$130 call spread for $1.60, betting on momentum to carry the stock into all-time highs. Rick Ducat’s technical analysis confirms Marvell’s breakout strength and overbought momentum, while highlighting key support at $100 and $98. The episode reveals a rare contrarian shift: a quantitative trader embracing a bullish gamma squeeze rather than fading momentum.