The “No Banner is Safe” Edition

In this episode of Rational Security, host Scott R. Anderson and returning guest Benjamin Wittes dive into the aftermath of President Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, analyzing a surprisingly low-key outcome that nonetheless signals a major strategic pivot: from trying to discipline China to managing the rivalry. While the summit produced few concrete deals—just soybean exports, Boeing orders, and two new trade/investment boards—the real significance lies in the normalization of dialogue and the de-escalation of rhetoric. Wittes calls it 'a successful summit' not for what it achieved, but for preventing catastrophe. The episode also unpacks the Trump administration’s increasingly aggressive posture toward Cuba, with intensified surveillance, sanctions, and hints of regime change, which Wittes sees as a repeat of the Venezuela playbook—bluffing with military escalation to pressure political change. Meanwhile, a legal defeat for the Section 122 tariffs at the Court of International Trade reveals a shrinking toolkit, pushing the administration toward more cumbersome 301 and 232 tariffs. But the real threat may be the Supreme Court’s upcoming review of the HMTX case, which could invalidate years of tariff expansions. Finally, Wittes shares a personal breakthrough: using AI to build RAGTIME, a tool that automates legal research, transforming him from skeptic to believer in AI’s power to augment human work.