Colombia's Upcoming Elections Could be the Most Violent Yet

This episode of Popular Front dives into the escalating violence and political instability surrounding Colombia's upcoming May 2026 elections, warning they could be the most violent in decades. Journalist Toby Mews details how the collapse of the 2016 FARC peace process created a power vacuum filled by a fragmented landscape of armed groups—FARC dissidents, the ELN, and the Gulf Clan Cartel—each vying for control of coca production and territory. With record cocaine output fueling criminal profits and a weak central government unable to enforce law and order, the country has descended into a cycle of violence. The assassination of right-wing presidential hopeful Miguel Tubay and the ongoing threat to candidates have intensified fears. The incoming administration will face a stark choice: continue fragile peace talks with armed groups, as left-wing candidate Ivan Cepeda proposes, or pursue a hardline, US-backed military crackdown, as right-wing candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Esprieta advocate. Mews argues that neither path is clearly effective, and the real root lies in global demand for cocaine and systemic corruption in Colombian politics. Despite the grim outlook, he reflects on the brief hope of 2016 and the enduring resilience of Colombians, calling the situation a tragic loop that demands more than just military or diplomatic fixes. The episode underscores that Colombia’s crisis is not just about drugs or militias, but about failed state-building, inequality, and the consequences of foreign intervention—especially from the US. Mews criticizes Trump’s drone strikes targeting fishermen, not cartel operatives, as counterproductive and inhumane, while also questioning the sustainability of peace processes that lack infrastructure and economic alternatives for farmers. He concludes that without addressing the root causes—corruption, poverty, and international demand—Colombia will remain trapped in a cycle of violence, regardless of who wins the presidency. The episode ends with a call for deeper understanding and systemic change, not just more war or more negotiations.