17. Emily Oster: “I Am a Woman Who Is Prominently Discussing Vaginas.”
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Emily Oster, a Brown University economist and bestselling author, reveals how her journey from academic research to public intellectual began not with a plan, but with a personal crisis: pregnancy. Frustrated by patronizing, non-data-driven advice for expectant mothers, she wrote *Expecting Better*—a book that combined rigorous data analysis with personal narrative, empowering women to make informed choices. This approach, rooted in transparency and skepticism of authority, became her hallmark. When the pandemic hit, she pivoted to creating the COVID School Dashboard, aggregating real-time data on school reopenings and infection rates. Her findings—low transmission in schools, especially among children—led her to become a vocal advocate for reopening, despite fierce backlash. What makes her stand out isn’t just her data fluency, but her willingness to admit when she’s wrong: she publicly retracted a major paper linking hepatitis B to gender imbalance in Asia after better data disproved it, a rare act of scientific integrity. Her most radical insight? That people often avoid knowing the truth—whether about their health, their future, or their children’s well-being—because the anticipation of a good life is more valuable than certainty. And in a world obsessed with being right, she’s chosen to be honest instead. Oster’s work challenges the myth that expertise requires silence.
When data is scarce, frame your decision around real alternatives—not 'do it or not'—to avoid paralysis.
The belief that breastfeeding boosts IQ is not supported by science; the actual benefits are modest and short-term.
People often avoid genetic testing not due to cost or access, but because knowing the future diminishes their ability to imagine a healthy one.
Self-fulfilling prophecies in health fads can distort data: early adopters of 'healthy' behaviors are already healthier, making the intervention look more effective than it is.
The strongest research insights are obvious in hindsight—once you see them, you wonder why no one else did.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
From Academic Prodigy to Public Intellectual
Steve Levitt recounts meeting Emily Oster as a Harvard undergrad, impressed by her groundbreaking thesis on witch trials and crop values in the Middle Ages, setting the stage for her unique blend of academic rigor and public communication.
The Birth of 'Expecting Better'
Oster describes how her frustration with patronizing pregnancy advice led her to write *Expecting Better*, a book that used data to empower women to make their own decisions—without claiming to be an expert.
The Coffee and Miscarriage Myth
“If you just look at raw data, not trying to take anything else into account, what you see is that there is a positive relationship between caffeine consumption and miscarriage. And then as people are more careful and they start to say, oh, well, older women drink more coffee and they have more miscarriages. Let's try to compare older women to older women and different variations on that. What you're saying is that the correlation you see in the data changes to become weaker and weaker.”
Breastfeeding: Science vs. Myth
“No, not IQ. Zero, right? Zero. Zero.”
The Pandemic Pivot: From Data Collector to Advocate
When the pandemic hit, Oster shifted from writing about parenting to creating the COVID School Dashboard, collecting real-time data on school reopenings and infection rates across the U.S.
“I am a woman who is prominently discussing vaginas. And that's not just in my books. I mean, I once wrote a paper about menstrual cups in Nepal. A menstrual cup is a reusable cup that you use during menstruation. And when I gave talks about that, I would bring a menstrual cup to the talk and pass it around.”
“after the studies that say it's good for you, a bunch of people start taking it, but they're precisely better educated people who don't smoke, who exercise more, who eat a good diet. And then those people disadopt later. But what's really striking is you see in some of the data, for example, the links that you would estimate between vitamin E and mortality basically are created by”
“Sometimes ignorance is bliss, even when the economic models tell us otherwise.”
Host
Guest
Emily Oster
person
Steve Levitt
person
Huntington's disease
other
COVID School Dashboard
other
Expecting Better
book
hepatitis B
other
Crib Sheet
book
Amartya Sen
person
Suzanne Gluck
person
Freakonomics Radio Network
organization
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