Predicting the News

This episode of On the Media explores the growing influence of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket in mainstream news coverage, examining how financial bets on geopolitical events, elections, and even celebrity interviews are being integrated into broadcast journalism. The podcast highlights concerns about manipulation, insider trading, and the trivialization of serious global events—such as the potential for war or political upheaval—by reducing them to speculative wagers. Journalist Judd Legum argues that news organizations are using these markets to appear neutral and data-driven, avoiding accusations of bias, but at the cost of undermining the core mission of journalism: informing citizens. The episode also reveals alarming examples of individuals profiting from inside knowledge, including a bet on a Venezuelan president’s arrest and a massive market surge before a Chris Hayes interview, raising ethical and regulatory questions. Despite claims of accuracy and market efficiency, the small size and lack of enforcement mechanisms in these markets make them vulnerable to exploitation. The discussion underscores a deeper crisis in media: the blurring line between news and entertainment, where the pursuit of engagement and viewer loyalty leads to the commodification of real-world events. With regulation falling under the CFTC—unlike the SEC’s expertise in insider trading—there is little capacity to enforce fairness. The episode concludes with a call to preserve a form of journalism that prioritizes civic responsibility over spectacle, warning that prediction markets risk turning democracy into a game of chance.