Why the Price of Oil, Beef, Electricity, and Everything Else Makes No Sense

The global economy is facing a paradox: while major supply shocks—like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical tensions—have triggered fears of runaway inflation and energy shortages, prices for oil, electricity, and food are not behaving as expected. Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche-Kelly, two leading commodity experts, explain that the market is being stabilized by massive demand destruction, strategic stockpiles, and policy-driven inventory hoarding—particularly in Europe’s fertilizer market due to the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Farmers are already feeling the squeeze, not from current food scarcity, but from a looming crisis in planting decisions driven by low crop prices and high input costs. Meanwhile, electricity prices in Europe have normalized after the 2022 crisis, but the real danger lies in the hidden inflationary pressure from transport costs and the long-term consequences of delayed agricultural investment. The UAE’s exit from OPEC signals a new era of oil market competition, and U.S. production increases won’t offset global supply gaps. The episode reveals that the real story isn’t scarcity—it’s the complex, delayed, and uneven way markets absorb shocks, with consequences rippling through food, energy, and finance in unexpected ways.