Who's getting those tariff refunds?

This Marketplace episode explores the dual realities of the current U.S. economy: strong job growth and record-breaking stock markets coexisting with widespread financial strain for average Americans. The April jobs report showed 115,000 new jobs added, a significant improvement over 2025’s sluggish pace, with hiring expanding beyond healthcare into transportation, retail, and construction. However, economists Heather Long and Greg Ip highlight a 'split-screen economy'—where AI-driven tech stocks surge while Main Street wages fail to keep up with inflation, especially amid rising gas prices. The episode also examines the fallout from Trump-era tariffs, now struck down by the Court of International Trade, and how businesses are deciding whether to pass tariff refunds to consumers. Many middlemen in supply chains, like HVAC supplier Norman Wright, can’t claim refunds directly and must rely on suppliers, while others like fig paste importer Peter Firth plan to fully refund customers. Legal experts note that refunds are not guaranteed unless contracts explicitly tied tariffs to pricing. Meanwhile, Spirit Airlines’ collapse raises concerns about economic ripple effects in Fort Lauderdale, drawing parallels to Cleveland’s post-merger decline, though competition and lower fares may soften the blow. The episode closes with a cultural note on the resurgence of Mahjong, spotlighting a New York parlor thriving amid a revival of in-person social games. Key takeaways include: 1) The economy is showing signs of stabilization with moderate job growth, but wage growth remains insufficient; 2) AI is inflating market metrics but not broadly benefiting workers; 3) Tariff refunds are not automatically passed to consumers—businesses decide based on contracts and power dynamics; 4) Supply chain complexity makes refund distribution messy; 5) The collapse of low-cost carriers like Spirit can have lasting local economic impacts; 6) Cultural trends like Mahjong’s comeback reflect a growing desire for community and connection; 7) Stock market highs and job gains don’t equate to widespread prosperity; 8) Consumers should scrutinize contracts to understand if they’re entitled to tariff refunds.