REVEALED: 9-Cat Rankings MISLEAD Most Fantasy Owners
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In this episode of the Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast, host Josh Lloyd delivers a passionate critique of the widely used nine-category (9-cat) total rankings in fantasy basketball, particularly those defaulting from platforms like Yahoo. He argues that these rankings—based on Z-scores and normalized distributions—are fundamentally flawed because NBA statistics don't follow a normal (bell-curve) distribution but instead exhibit a right-tailed skew, which distorts outlier evaluations. Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose free-throw percentages are consistently poor, are unfairly penalized in these rankings, making them appear worse than they are. Lloyd introduces his own dynamic, unbiased ranking system—Durant—which uses per-game metrics, the Yo-Johnson transformation to normalize data, and weighted variance adjustments to better reflect real-world fantasy value, especially in head-to-head leagues. He highlights numerous players inflated by 9-cat totals—such as Jaylen Hoof, Julian Champagne, Kaysen Wallace, Colin Gillespie, Donovan Clingham, Mikael Bridges, and Kal-El Ware—whose high rankings mislead owners into overvaluing low-volume, inconsistent performers. The episode serves as a strong warning to fantasy managers: don’t trust default rankings without understanding their methodology, context, and limitations.
Default 9-cat total rankings on Yahoo are misleading because they use Z-scores based on normal distribution assumptions that don’t apply to NBA stats.
Per-game metrics (like Durant’s system) are more valuable than season-long totals, especially in head-to-head leagues where player availability and matchups matter.
High-variance stats like steals and blocks are overvalued in total rankings because they’re easy to find on waivers, making them less scarce and less valuable than total points or rebounds.
Context is critical: players like Colin Gillespie and Kal-El Ware were boosted by injury-driven playing time, not sustained elite performance.
Always question the source and methodology behind any ranking—especially when it’s presented as a universal truth without explanation.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Introducing the 9-Cat Rankings Trap
“The 9-cat total rankings are incredibly misleading. They're not telling you what will happen. They're not telling you what did happen. They're just wrong.”
The Flawed Math Behind Z-Scores and Normal Distributions
“Giannis' free throw percentage was negative 4.62. That’s a one in 525,000 occurrence. But he’s done it for years. The math is broken.”
Introducing Durant: A Better Ranking System
“Durant is per-game, not total. Because what matters isn’t what happened last season—it’s what will happen next.”
Case Studies: Players Overvalued by 9-Cat Totals
“If you’re drafting Donovan Clingham in the second round because he’s ranked 21st, you’re not just wrong—you’re throwing money away.”
The Broader Implications: Why This Matters for Fantasy Managers
“You’ve got to know what people are referencing when they talk rankings. Where are they coming from? What’s the methodology? Because if you don’t, you’re just guessing.”
“Giannis' free throw percentage was negative 4.62. That’s a one in 525,000 occurrence. But he’s done it for years. The math is broken.”
“If you’re drafting Donovan Clingham in the second round because he’s ranked 21st, you’re not just wrong—you’re throwing money away.”
“The 9-cat total rankings are incredibly misleading. They're not telling you what will happen. They're not telling you what did happen. They're just wrong.”
Host
Durant
other
Josh Lloyd
person
Yahoo Fantasy Basketball
other
Giannis Antetokounmpo
person
Z-Scores
other
Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast
media
Donovan Clingham
person
Jaylen Hoof
person
Mikael Bridges
person
Julian Champagne
person
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