Are Montreal Canadiens UNDERESTIMATED against Tampa Bay Lightning? | Who steps up? | Celebrating the best regular season in decades
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The Locked On Canadiens podcast reflects on a historic and exhilarating regular season for the Montreal Canadiens, celebrating what may be the best campaign in three decades. Despite being widely underestimated heading into the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the hosts argue that Montreal’s recent form—especially their 2-1-1 record against Tampa this season and dominant 16-7-2 stretch since the Olympic break—provides strong evidence they are not the underdog many assume. The episode dives into advanced analytics, highlighting that goaltender Jakob Dobish has matched or outperformed Andre Vasilevsky in key metrics like save percentage in close situations and goals saved above expected at five-on-five. The Canadiens’ speed, offensive depth (led by Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Ivan Demidov), and improved special teams since the break are presented as major advantages. The hosts also express deep emotional attachment to the season, mourning its end while urging fans to appreciate its brilliance regardless of playoff outcomes. They caution against complacency, noting that future success will be judged by postseason performance, but emphasize that this season was a rare, joyful triumph in its own right.
Montreal’s 16-7-2 record since the Olympic break shows they’re peaking at the right time, not fading.
Jakob Dobish has been a revelation, outperforming Vasilevsky in critical close-game situations and five-on-five metrics.
The Canadiens’ speed and offensive depth—especially from Suzuki, Caufield, and Demidov—give them a real chance against Tampa.
Even if they don’t win the Cup, this season was one of the most exciting in 30 years and deserves celebration.
The team’s youth, depth, and momentum suggest they’re not just a one-year wonder but a long-term contender.
Welcome & The Underestimated Canadiens
The hosts introduce the episode, highlighting the Canadiens' underdog status heading into the playoffs and setting the tone for a passionate defense of their team's value and recent success.
The Tampa Rematch Myth & Playoff Mindset
“It's not like... when they say that, to me it conjures up the image of these two teams meeting again in the Stanley Cup final. Not in the first round.”
Numbers & Matchup Breakdown
“Montreal's PDO is 1.019. Tampa Bay's is 1.02. They are literally separated by a thousandth of a point.”
Celebrating the Season That Was
“This season made me love hockey more than I ever have in my entire life.”
Looking Ahead: Future & Trade Speculation
The episode closes with forward-looking thoughts on the Canadiens’ future, the potential for big offseason moves, and the danger of becoming like the Toronto Maple Leafs if they don’t deliver in the playoffs.
“This season made me love hockey more than I ever have in my entire life.”
“Even if they get swept... we have to appreciate this season for what it was because it was incredible.”
“It's not like... when they say that, to me it conjures up the image of these two teams meeting again in the Stanley Cup final. Not in the first round.”
Hosts
Montreal Canadiens
other
Tampa Bay Lightning
other
Jakob Dobish
person
Andre Vasilevsky
person
Nick Suzuki
person
Cole Caufield
person
Ivan Demidov
person
Uri Slavkovsky
person
Josh Anderson
person
Phil Dano
person
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