Chicago Bears 2026 schedule isn't as tough as strength of schedule rankings make it out to be
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The Chicago Bears' 2026 schedule is being labeled the toughest in the NFL based on traditional strength of schedule metrics, which rely solely on opponents' win totals from 2025. But host Lauren Cox argues this method is deeply flawed—past performance doesn’t predict future results, especially in a league where teams constantly evolve. She highlights that the Bears' projected schedule, when measured by Vegas win totals (a forward-looking metric), drops from #1 to #6 in difficulty—much closer to the league average. This shift reflects real-world changes: key teams like the Patriots, Seahawks, and Jaguars are expected to decline from their 2025 dominance, while others may rise. Beyond team performance, Cox emphasizes underrated factors like travel. The Bears have one of the most favorable road travel schedules in the NFL, with only one West Coast trip and minimal time zone shifts, giving them a physical edge. Combined with a favorable home game count and no international games, the Bears’ actual challenge may be far less severe than the headline numbers suggest.
The Bears' strength of schedule drops from #1 to #6 when using projected win totals instead of past win records.
Vegas win totals are a more accurate predictor of future schedule difficulty than last year’s win-loss records.
The Bears face tough opponents like the Seahawks, Patriots, and Jaguars, but those teams are expected to regress from 2025 levels.
The Bears have the third-fewest projected travel miles in the NFL, with only one West Coast road trip.
Travel advantages include minimal time zone changes and no international games, reducing jet lag and fatigue.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Intro & The Flawed Strength of Schedule Myth
The episode opens with sponsor ads and introduces the central thesis: the Bears' 2026 schedule is not as tough as traditional strength of schedule rankings suggest. The host critiques the outdated metric that bases difficulty on opponents' 2025 win totals.
Why Past Wins Don’t Predict Future Difficulty
Lauren Cox explains why relying on last season’s win totals is misleading—teams change dramatically year-to-year due to roster turnover, coaching changes, and injuries. She uses the Bears’ 2025 schedule as a case study: projected as second hardest, it ended up 23rd easiest.
The Real Tough Opponents & Their 2026 Outlook
The Bears face several 2025 playoff teams—Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Eagles, Bills—whose 2026 performances are expected to decline. The host breaks down key roster losses and coaching instability that could reduce their dominance.
A Better Metric: Vegas Win Totals
“The Bears enter with the sixth hardest schedule based on projected win totals. But there might not finish with the sixth hardest schedule based on projected win total or based on final win totals because as you go through the season every time you win a game that means your opponent has one more loss.”
Travel Advantage: The Hidden Factor
“The Bears don't have to go international, but Lions go to Germany. Vikings go to Mexico City. So they've got a little bit of a longer trek, but Mexico City is not even that much farther than like going to Houston or Dallas.”
“The Bears enter with the sixth hardest schedule based on projected win totals. But there might not finish with the sixth hardest schedule based on projected win total or based on final win totals because as you go through the season every time you win a game that means your opponent has one more loss.”
“The Bears don't have to go international, but Lions go to Germany. Vikings go to Mexico City. So they've got a little bit of a longer trek, but Mexico City is not even that much farther than like going to Houston or Dallas.”
“The Bears have the third fewest projected miles that they have to travel on their schedule from, for all of their road games. The number's not that important. It's like 10,000 miles, but like only two teams will have to travel less this season.”
Host
Chicago Bears
other
Lauren Cox
person
Seattle Seahawks
other
New England Patriots
other
Jacksonville Jaguars
other
Buffalo Bills
other
Philadelphia Eagles
other
Square
organization
Game Time
organization
Warren Sharp
person
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