Humanoid Robots Will Replace Millions of Workers — Are You Invested? | Derek Yan
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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Dyer sits down with Derek Yan, senior investment strategist at Craneshares, to explore the transformative potential of humanoid and physical AI robotics, particularly in the context of emerging global warfare and industrial disruption. Yan explains how the rise of affordable drones and robotics—especially from cost-efficient manufacturers like China’s Unitree—has already reshaped modern conflict dynamics, making technology, not troop numbers, the decisive factor. He emphasizes that the future of warfare will be defined by drone-on-drone and robot-on-robot engagements, with affordability and supply chain resilience becoming critical. Beyond defense, Yan highlights the massive growth potential in humanoid robotics, driven by breakthroughs in AI models, actuators, and sensor systems. He discusses how the COID ETF, launched by Craneshares, is designed to capture value across the entire robotics supply chain, focusing on component makers rather than just end-product companies. The fund uses a dynamic, equal-weighted approach with quarterly rebalancing to stay agile in a rapidly evolving ecosystem. Yan also notes that while hardware is advancing quickly, the real breakthroughs will come from AI models that enable robots to understand and interact with the physical world—what he calls the 'GPT moment' for physical AI.
The future of warfare is shifting from boots-on-the-ground to drone and robot-on-robot combat, with affordability and supply chain control becoming strategic advantages.
Humanoid robotics are at an early stage of the S-curve, with massive growth potential driven by advancements in AI models, actuators, and sensors.
The COID ETF focuses on supply chain components—actuators, bearings, sensors, and materials—rather than just end-product companies, capturing value across the ecosystem.
China is leading in cost-efficient hardware, while the U.S. and Europe hold advantages in AI intelligence and precision engineering.
Breakthroughs like AI-powered robotic hands assembling cars signal a 'GPT moment' for physical AI, where software will unlock the full potential of hardware.
Introduction to Derek Yan and COID ETF
Michael Dyer introduces Derek Yan, senior investment strategist at Craneshares, and sets the stage for a discussion on the emerging role of humanoid robotics in global markets and warfare. Yan explains the mission of COID, a new ETF focused on the physical AI and robotics ecosystem.
The New Face of Warfare: Drones and Robotics
“You don't want to burn another $100 billion on the war because that's not sustainable if you think about Iran is going to use very affordable drones to keep attacking.”
From Quadrupeds to Humanoids: The Next Frontier
“A humanoid can do a lot of things together with human troops or going to dangerous places for humans. That's another application, I would think, for humanoid.”
Supply Chain Complexity and Strategic Components
“The most important part is actuators because that's defined the freedom, like how many degrees of freedom for robotics, right?”
The IPO Wave and Valuation Benchmarks
Yan discusses how Unitree’s upcoming IPO in Shanghai will serve as a valuation benchmark for private humanoid companies. He highlights Unitree’s profitability and revenue growth, signaling a shift from early-stage hype to commercial viability.
“We are waiting for this GPT moment happening in the physical world where those war models were just like those models by startups or incubators can create this dramatic change to the intelligence of humanoid and quadruped.”
“You don't want to burn another $100 billion on the war because that's not sustainable if you think about Iran is going to use very affordable drones to keep attacking.”
“Breakthroughs like AI-powered robotic hands assembling cars signal a 'GPT moment' for physical AI, where software will unlock the full potential of hardware.”
Host
Guest
Derek Yan
person
COID
other
Craneshares
organization
U.S.
place
Unitree
organization
China
place
Iran
place
Vedia
organization
Elon Musk
person
Fei-Fei Li
person
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