Humanoid Robots Will Replace Millions of Workers — Are You Invested? | Derek Yan

Lead-Lag Live26mMarch 31, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Dyer sits down with Derek Yan, senior investment strategist at Craneshares, to explore the transformative potential of humanoid and physical AI robotics, particularly in the context of emerging global warfare and industrial disruption. Yan explains how the rise of affordable drones and robotics—especially from cost-efficient manufacturers like China’s Unitree—has already reshaped modern conflict dynamics, making technology, not troop numbers, the decisive factor. He emphasizes that the future of warfare will be defined by drone-on-drone and robot-on-robot engagements, with affordability and supply chain resilience becoming critical. Beyond defense, Yan highlights the massive growth potential in humanoid robotics, driven by breakthroughs in AI models, actuators, and sensor systems. He discusses how the COID ETF, launched by Craneshares, is designed to capture value across the entire robotics supply chain, focusing on component makers rather than just end-product companies. The fund uses a dynamic, equal-weighted approach with quarterly rebalancing to stay agile in a rapidly evolving ecosystem. Yan also notes that while hardware is advancing quickly, the real breakthroughs will come from AI models that enable robots to understand and interact with the physical world—what he calls the 'GPT moment' for physical AI.

Key Takeaways
1

The future of warfare is shifting from boots-on-the-ground to drone and robot-on-robot combat, with affordability and supply chain control becoming strategic advantages.

2

Humanoid robotics are at an early stage of the S-curve, with massive growth potential driven by advancements in AI models, actuators, and sensors.

3

The COID ETF focuses on supply chain components—actuators, bearings, sensors, and materials—rather than just end-product companies, capturing value across the ecosystem.

4

China is leading in cost-efficient hardware, while the U.S. and Europe hold advantages in AI intelligence and precision engineering.

5

Breakthroughs like AI-powered robotic hands assembling cars signal a 'GPT moment' for physical AI, where software will unlock the full potential of hardware.

Chapters
0:00
2 min

Introduction to Derek Yan and COID ETF

Michael Dyer introduces Derek Yan, senior investment strategist at Craneshares, and sets the stage for a discussion on the emerging role of humanoid robotics in global markets and warfare. Yan explains the mission of COID, a new ETF focused on the physical AI and robotics ecosystem.

2:00
3 min

The New Face of Warfare: Drones and Robotics

You don't want to burn another $100 billion on the war because that's not sustainable if you think about Iran is going to use very affordable drones to keep attacking.

Highlight
5:00
5 min

From Quadrupeds to Humanoids: The Next Frontier

A humanoid can do a lot of things together with human troops or going to dangerous places for humans. That's another application, I would think, for humanoid.

Highlight
10:00
5 min

Supply Chain Complexity and Strategic Components

The most important part is actuators because that's defined the freedom, like how many degrees of freedom for robotics, right?

Highlight
15:00
5 min

The IPO Wave and Valuation Benchmarks

Yan discusses how Unitree’s upcoming IPO in Shanghai will serve as a valuation benchmark for private humanoid companies. He highlights Unitree’s profitability and revenue growth, signaling a shift from early-stage hype to commercial viability.

High-Impact Quotes
We are waiting for this GPT moment happening in the physical world where those war models were just like those models by startups or incubators can create this dramatic change to the intelligence of humanoid and quadruped.
Derek Yan20:31
Viral: 90.0
You don't want to burn another $100 billion on the war because that's not sustainable if you think about Iran is going to use very affordable drones to keep attacking.
Derek Yan2:34
Viral: 85.0
Breakthroughs like AI-powered robotic hands assembling cars signal a 'GPT moment' for physical AI, where software will unlock the full potential of hardware.
Derek Yan33:34
Viral: 82.0
Speakers

Host

Michael Dyer

Guest

Derek Yan
Topics Discussed
Humanoid Robotics95%Military Robotics and Warfare90%Global Supply Chain for Robotics88%AI in Physical Systems85%Actuators and Precision Components82%Investment in Emerging Tech ETFs80%China's Role in Robotics Manufacturing75%Affordable Drone Warfare70%
People & Brands

Derek Yan

person

25xPositive

COID

other

18xPositive

Craneshares

organization

12xPositive

U.S.

place

10xNeutral

Unitree

organization

8xPositive

China

place

8xNeutral

Iran

place

6xNeutral

Vedia

organization

2xPositive

Elon Musk

person

2xNeutral

Fei-Fei Li

person

2xPositive

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