Why should WA get so much of the GST?
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This episode of Late Night Live examines the controversial and costly GST distribution deal that heavily favors Western Australia, now projected to cost the Commonwealth $60 billion by 2029. The arrangement, initially negotiated by Scott Morrison in 2017 and extended by Anthony Albanese in 2024, guarantees WA no more than a quarter of its GST revenue goes to the federal government—despite the state contributing disproportionately due to iron ore royalties. The deal was born out of WA’s economic downturn during the 2014–2015 resources boom collapse, when its GST receipts plummeted under a complex allocation system. However, rising iron ore prices reversed the trend, inflating WA’s GST share and making the deal far more expensive than anticipated. The episode reveals how the system’s opacity—such as the 2025 reclassification of Coffs Harbour from outer to inner regional center, costing NSW $200 million—has fueled frustration among other states like NSW, Queensland, and Victoria. Despite widespread recognition of the flaws, political gridlock and competing state interests prevent reform. The Productivity Commission is currently reviewing the entire framework, offering a sliver of hope for change by year’s end.
Western Australia receives a $60 billion windfall by 2029 due to a GST deal that limits its federal revenue share to 25%.
The deal was originally intended as a temporary fix for WA’s post-boom budget crisis but has become a permanent, costly anomaly.
The GST allocation system is so complex and opaque that minor statistical reclassifications (e.g., Coffs Harbour) can cost states hundreds of millions.
Other states are frustrated but lack unified political will to challenge the system, as they compete rather than collaborate.
The Productivity Commission’s upcoming report may finally push for a fairer, more transparent system.
The Origins of WA's GST Advantage
John Howard's 1998 promise to distribute GST revenue equitably across states set the stage for a system that later became distorted by Western Australia's iron ore boom.
Morrison's 2017 Deal and Its Unintended Consequences
“By blowing out, what do you mean? Well, let's say the first four years of it were supposed to cost about $2.3, $2.4 billion. was closer to $12 billion to $14 billion.”
The Political Power Shift in Western Australia
“The politics of it have changed so much. The power of the West Australian Liberal Party inside the Federal Liberal Party for years... has also disappeared.”
The Hidden Costs and Inequities of the System
“Coffs Harbour didn't move, but a line defining of where it is in part of a statistical definitional area did change and it came at a cost of $200 million.”
Hope for Reform: The Productivity Commission Review
The upcoming Productivity Commission report offers the first real chance to overhaul the flawed GST system, though political inertia remains a major barrier.
“By blowing out, what do you mean? Well, let's say the first four years of it were supposed to cost about $2.3, $2.4 billion. was closer to $12 billion to $14 billion.”
“Coffs Harbour didn't move, but a line defining of where it is in part of a statistical definitional area did change and it came at a cost of $200 million.”
“You can see the problems. You can see it has an impact on people, but the political system at a federal level doesn't want to change.”
Host
Guest
Western Australia
place
New South Wales
place
Scott Morrison
person
Anthony Albanese
person
Queensland
place
Commonwealth Grants Commission
organization
Productivity Commission
organization
Victoria
place
Coffs Harbour
place
Colin Barnett
person
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