Kuppy: Oil, War, and the Future of Markets

In this high-octane episode of the Know Your Risk Podcast, host Chase and guest Harris Cuppy of Praetorian Capital dive deep into the geopolitical and economic implications of the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the war has not truly begun and that the U.S. lacks the military and political capacity to open the strait. Cuppy presents a stark vision of a world where Hormuz remains closed indefinitely, triggering a global commodities crisis, a collapse in demand, and a massive reordering of global trade. He forecasts soaring oil prices, a shift toward defensive weapons and drone warfare, and a dramatic realignment of global power, with the U.S. emerging as a net energy exporter and the S&P 500 rising despite economic pain for the masses. The conversation pivots to Cuppy’s provocative 'feudalism' thesis: a future where the U.S. economy resembles Latin America, with a tiny elite (the 0.1%) living in gated enclaves while the majority (the 'favela') struggle under inflation and stagnant wages. He argues that asset prices are decoupled from fundamentals, driven by endless money printing and capital flight, and that the wealthy are already preparing for this future by relocating to tax havens like Dubai, Puerto Rico, and emerging hubs in Latin America. The episode concludes with a detailed investment playbook focused on international markets, exchanges, refiners, and asset managers in commodity-exporting nations, all positioned to thrive in this new world order.