Market Stalling? Here's What Happening
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In this episode of The Ken McElroy Show, host Ken McElroy welcomes Dave Meyer from BiggerPockets to discuss the current state of the real estate market amid stalled growth, elevated mortgage rates, and shifting investor expectations. The conversation centers on the idea that the market is entering a 'great stall'—a period of high rates, slow appreciation, and reduced speculation—marking a return to fundamentals after years of irrational exuberance. Dave emphasizes that while short-term gains are unlikely, long-term investors with patience, discipline, and a focus on cash flow, affordability, and location can thrive. He advocates for investing in the Midwest, where affordability and stable economies offer resilience, and highlights the importance of precision, negotiation, and operational flexibility in today’s market. The episode also explores how AI-driven cost-cutting is reshaping the job market, potentially fueling a white-collar recession, and why real estate should be viewed as entrepreneurship, not speculation. Both hosts stress that the era of easy flips and rapid appreciation is over, and success now requires a long-term, business-oriented mindset.
Real estate is no longer a short-term speculation game—focus on long-term cash flow, tax benefits, and asset fundamentals.
The Midwest offers stable, affordable markets with strong long-term potential due to diversified economies and lower supply pressures.
Buyers should expect to make multiple offers (20+ likely) and be prepared to walk away—negotiation is now about discipline, not emotion.
Sellers are more likely to accept lower offers due to market stagnation, making this a buyer’s market for patient, well-prepared investors.
Rent-by-room and co-living models can boost returns in high-demand, low-affordability areas, but require strong operations and good location.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Introducing the 'Great Stall' in Real Estate
“I think we're in this period called what I call like the great stall. I think rates are going to remain relatively high. I think we're going to have years of probably pretty slow appreciation across the country.”
Why Rates Won’t Drop Soon: Inflation, Recession, and Stagflation
Dave explains why mortgage rates are unlikely to drop significantly in the near term. He highlights the Fed’s dilemma: balancing inflation fears with recession risks, especially with AI-driven job cuts and rising unemployment. The risk of stagflation—high inflation and stagnant growth—keeps rates high and markets uncertain.
The Psychology of Real Estate: From Frenzy to Fundamentals
The hosts reflect on how the market’s volatility over the past decade has made buyers hyper-focused on mortgage rates. Dave argues that this is now more psychological than financial, and that the market is reverting to normal—where real estate is a long-term business, not a stock.
The Midwest Advantage: Affordability, Stability, and Long-Term Play
“I really like them for my approach to real estate because I'm in it for the long term, and I like stability. And those places, not only are they affordable, they don't suffer from the supply challenge that a lot of other places do.”
The New Rules of Investing: Patience, Precision, and Flexibility
“It's not about being emotional. It's about the math. The math is the math. And you can argue with the math, but you can't argue with me.”
“It's not about being emotional. It's about the math. The math is the math. And you can argue with the math, but you can't argue with me.”
“I think we're in this period called what I call like the great stall. I think rates are going to remain relatively high. I think we're going to have years of probably pretty slow appreciation across the country.”
“The best real estate investors treat their portfolios like businesses, not stocks, and focus on predictable cash flow over market timing.”
Host
Guest
Ken McElroy
person
Dave Meyer
person
Inflation
other
Midwest
place
BiggerPockets
organization
Federal Reserve
organization
Shopify
organization
AI
other
PadSplit
organization
Denver
place
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