What Will Trigger the Next World War? With Peter Apps

In this episode of Intelligence Squared, Peter Apps, Global Defense Commentator at Reuters and author of *The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict and the Fight to Stop It*, joins host Hannah Lucinda-Smith to explore the growing risk of global conflict in an era defined by great power rivalry and rapid technological change. Apps identifies the Asia-Pacific region—particularly the Taiwan Strait—as the most likely flashpoint for a major war, driven by China's strategic patience, military readiness concerns, and hopes for a non-military resolution via the 2028 Taiwanese election. While Europe and the Middle East remain volatile due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and U.S.-Iran hostilities, Apps argues these are more likely to escalate gradually through 'boiling the frog' dynamics rather than sudden detonations. He warns that the West, particularly the UK, remains dangerously unprepared for conventional warfare, despite high defense spending, due to poor strategic investment, lack of civil defense planning, and a political elite detached from public awareness. Apps also critiques the UK’s reluctance to discuss national service or civil defense, contrasting it with the public’s readiness to engage in such conversations. Looking ahead, he identifies 2029–2035 as the most perilous window, shaped by new U.S. leadership, European elections, and potential mass mobilizations by Russia and China. The episode concludes with a call for a renewed sense of national duty and strategic clarity to prevent a descent into war. Key takeaways include: (1) The Taiwan Strait remains the most dangerous flashpoint due to China’s strategic patience and military uncertainty; (2) Gradual escalation—'boiling the frog'—poses a greater risk than sudden war; (3) High defense spending does not equal military readiness; (4) Civil defense and public awareness are critically underdeveloped in Western nations; (5) The period 2029–2035 is the most dangerous due to leadership transitions and geopolitical shifts; (6) National service and broader societal mobilization may be essential for deterrence; (7) The West must move beyond fear-based recruitment and embrace a narrative of collective responsibility; (8) Public understanding of war risk is higher than political leadership acknowledges.