Is Putin losing control of his war in Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin may be losing control of the war in Ukraine, not through battlefield defeat but through a cascade of domestic and geopolitical pressures that are eroding the foundations of his regime. The scaled-back 9 May Victory Day parade—stripped of tanks and military displays—symbolizes a Russia struggling to project strength despite its vast resources. Reports of Putin retreating into underground bunkers, heightened security, and internet blackouts in Moscow suggest deepening anxiety within the Kremlin. While the Russian economy has proven resilient to Western sanctions, inflation, declining purchasing power, and a 10-point drop in Putin’s approval rating (to 64%) signal growing unease. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s drone campaign has disrupted energy infrastructure across 16 regions, damaged refineries, and stretched Russian air defenses to breaking point. Though the war remains stalemated, Ukraine is gaining strategic advantage by targeting logistics and deepening operational pressure. Crucially, the war is no longer just a military conflict—it’s a psychological campaign aimed at fracturing Russian morale and forcing a reckoning within Moscow. The Kremlin’s fear of internal dissent, amplified by a pro-Putin influencer in Dubai criticizing internet cuts, reveals a regime increasingly paranoid about its own legitimacy.