Strait to the Point (with Jonathan Martin)

Donald Trump's presidency is unraveling not from external opposition, but from the self-inflicted wounds of his own tribal politics. In a stunning reversal, the man who built his power on loyalty now faces a coalition in revolt—Republicans who voted for impeachment, moderates alienated by his war in Iran, and Hispanics burned by harsh deportation policies. The data is brutal: Trump’s approval rating has hit a historic low of 37% in The New York Times poll, with independents, Latinos, and young voters all underwater by 40 points or more. Yet the real story isn’t just the numbers—it’s the mechanism. Trump’s war in the Strait of Hormuz is a geopolitical disaster that’s driving gas prices up, but he’s too desperate to end it to negotiate from strength. The Iranians know it. The Saudis know it. And the Democrats are reaping the 'batshit dividend'—a term for how Trump’s own volatility fuels the opposition. Meanwhile, in Northern Kentucky, the most expensive House primary in history is a proxy war between Trump and Thomas Massey, a libertarian conservative who dared question Israel and oppose the war. The outcome will test whether loyalty to Trump is now a death sentence in a Republican primary. And in Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp is quietly building a non-Trump candidate to beat the odds—proving that even in Trump’s world, strategy still matters. The episode’s most explosive insight?