The oil market navigates a shaky ceasefire

The FT News Briefing explores the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and its ripple effects on global oil markets. Iran's threat to withdraw from the truce following Israeli attacks in Lebanon has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of supply constraints. Despite initial optimism that the ceasefire would lower oil prices, Brent crude remained below $100, with traders awaiting clarity on potential tolling arrangements and U.S. involvement. Asia, heavily reliant on Gulf oil via the strait, is scrambling for alternatives, leading to a surge in U.S. oil exports—driven by releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and increased Venezuelan crude imports. Experts suggest this shift is likely temporary, as U.S. shale production lacks the capacity to sustain long-term increases. Meanwhile, Pakistan is positioning itself as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran, motivated by economic vulnerability, regional security concerns, and a strategic desire to improve its international standing. However, the country risks being drawn into conflict if peace talks fail, especially given its defense pact with Saudi Arabia. On a separate note, NHS England’s data chief is pushing to deepen Palantir’s role in health data systems despite controversy over the company’s ties to U.S. defense and immigration enforcement, citing operational benefits.