Gulf dealmaking machine hits the brakes

The FT News Briefing explores a pivotal moment in global geopolitics and finance, beginning with the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, described by President Trump as being on 'massive life support.' As diplomatic efforts stall over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, attention shifts to the upcoming U.S.-China summit, where trade tensions remain high despite China's leverage through critical mineral exports. Gideon Rockman, the FT's chief foreign affairs commentator, notes that while China holds an edge in trade, the U.S. retains influence through tech export restrictions—though these may backfire by accelerating Chinese innovation. The geopolitical chess game extends to Taiwan, where a shift in U.S. stance could be a major signal. Meanwhile, the Gulf region’s booming dealmaking momentum has stalled due to the war in Iran. Despite a resilient business culture and continued investment from major firms like Blackstone and Citadel, M&A activity and IPOs have ground to a halt, with no new listings in the UAE since January. Nico Parrazi reports that while capital remains abundant, uncertainty is delaying deals, with bankers bracing for longer timelines, revised valuations, or cancellations. The best-case scenario hinges on a swift ceasefire; the worst could trigger lasting investor flight from the region.