Jurrien Timmer's global macro view – March 23, 2026

In this episode of FidelityConnects, host Pamela Ritchie sits down with Jurrien Timmer, Head of Global Macro at Fidelity, to unpack the market turmoil triggered by escalating tensions with Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices. Timmer explains how the market is pricing in a potential stagflation scenario, driven by supply chain disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the U.S.'s energy independence. He highlights that while equities declined, the drop was mitigated by strong earnings growth and a significant fall in valuations, particularly in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio. Bond yields rose sharply, defying traditional safe-haven behavior, while gold sold off dramatically—unexpectedly—despite inflationary pressures, suggesting forced liquidations or algorithmic trading. Bitcoin, meanwhile, showed resilience, hinting at a possible rotation from gold to digital assets. Timmer also explores broader geopolitical shifts, including the potential decline of the petrodollar system and China’s growing role as a global energy broker, warning of a fragmented world order. He concludes with cautious optimism, noting that markets remain in an uptrend and that the current volatility may be a temporary correction rather than a structural shift, especially if the conflict de-escalates soon. Key takeaways include: 1) Strong earnings are buffering equity drawdowns despite geopolitical shocks; 2) Rising bond yields and falling gold suggest a shift toward a higher real rate environment; 3) The market is pricing in stagflation risk from supply-side disruptions, not just demand destruction; 4) Bitcoin’s resilience signals a growing role as a macro hedge; 5) The U.S.-Canada energy relationship may strengthen as a geopolitical silver lining; 6) Algorithmic trading and forced liquidations are amplifying volatility; 7) The petrodollar system is under long-term stress from multipolar energy trade; 8) Market resilience hinges on a swift resolution to the Iran conflict and continued earnings momentum.