John Ellsworth Gives His Quarter 1 2026 Update On The Dairy Industry

The dairy industry is navigating a volatile 2026, shaped by geopolitical tensions, rising input costs, and shifting financial dynamics—yet John Ellsworth of Success Strategies remains cautiously optimistic. Despite the Iranian conflict disrupting global energy and fertilizer flows, the U.S. is better positioned than Europe due to energy independence, though fuel and fertilizer prices are still climbing. Tariffs, while legally constrained by the Supreme Court, remain a strategic tool for balancing trade deficits, and the federal government’s fiscal pressures are driving policy shifts. Interest rates are expected to fall by July, but not as quickly as producers hope, with inflation still a key concern. Ellsworth emphasizes that profitability in 2026 will hinge not on cutting costs at all costs, but on disciplined financial control, strategic planning, and leveraging high cull cow and calf prices—factors that made 2025 profitable despite weak milk margins. He warns against panic, urging producers to focus on what they can control: cash flow, monthly monitoring, and long-term adaptation. The real differentiator? Preparation. Two clients sold their dairies at record prices after decades of consistent financial tracking, proving that 'overnight success' is often the result of 20 years of steady work. Technology, from AI to robotics, isn’t mandatory—but those who adopt tools that fit their operation gain efficiency and scalability.