Dave Collum and Steve Hanke #1350

In this incisive episode of Coffee and a Mike, hosts Mike and guests Dave Collum and Steve Hanke dissect the escalating conflict between Iran and the West, challenging mainstream narratives with data-driven analysis. Hanke reveals that Iran's currency has strengthened by 9% and inflation has dropped from 90% to below 60% annually since the war began—contrary to Western media reports of economic collapse. He attributes this to increased oil exports at higher prices, drawing parallels to Russia’s economic resilience during the Ukraine war. The conversation critiques the failure of decapitation strategies, citing historical evidence and expert analysis from figures like Ted Postol and Vali Nasr, who argue that Iran’s decentralized, mosaic-like structure makes regime change impossible. The hosts emphasize that the war is a war of choice driven by Israeli and U.S. strategic miscalculations, with the U.S. intelligence community warning against escalation—yet ignored by Trump, who Hanke calls a puppet of Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby. The episode forecasts a massive global economic shock: a supply-side oil crisis due to just-in-time inventory fragility, leading to a spike in oil prices and a broader commodities rally. Hanke warns of a 'complacency bubble' in markets, predicting long-term damage to U.S. soft power, a reputational collapse, and a potential shift toward multipolarity. He also debunks de-dollarization fears, asserting the dollar’s dominance remains intact. The discussion ends on a somber note: the war will inflict lasting geopolitical and economic harm on the U.S., with Trump facing a Lyndon Johnson-style political reckoning if he fails to exit the conflict decisively.