Food prices after Hormuz: What changes now?

The war in the Gulf has triggered a global food price shock, not through direct crop destruction but by disrupting the flow of critical agricultural inputs—especially fertilizers—through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a recent ceasefire, the damage is already baked into the system: global urea prices have surged over 50%, and farmers like Bill Webb in England now pay nearly double for nitrogen fertilizer. This cost spike is hitting at a moment when grain prices remain stable due to high global inventories, creating a dangerous mismatch—farmers face soaring input costs but can't pass them on through higher crop prices. The result? Hard choices: reduce fertilizer to save money and risk lower-quality wheat, or keep investing and risk unprofitable harvests. Experts warn this could lead to food inflation by late 2026, with supply chains still recovering from infrastructure damage that may take over a year to repair. The crisis is global, affecting farmers from Romania to Australia, and could reshape crop choices and food availability for years. The episode reveals a hidden vulnerability in the global food system: its dependence on a few choke points for fertilizer and energy. Unlike the 2022 Ukraine war, which disrupted grain exports, today’s crisis is about inputs—natural gas, oil, and ammonia—whose supply can’t be quickly restored. Even with peace, the ripple effects will persist. Governments have imposed export bans to protect domestic farming, creating a domino effect.