Arthur Hayes: Why Bitcoin Isn’t in a Bull Run Yet

Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Malmstrom, delivers a candid and data-driven analysis of Bitcoin's current market state in this interview, arguing that the asset is not yet in a bull run despite macroeconomic tailwinds. He contends that Bitcoin's recent 50% decline while the NASDAQ held steady reflects a credit deflationary event driven by AI's disruption of SaaS companies and knowledge worker productivity, undermining traditional tech valuations. Hayes sees the war in the Middle East as a catalyst for massive U.S. government credit expansion, which will fuel a new wave of money printing through commercial banks—effectively a 'swap' of debt issuance from government to private banks—accelerating liquidity growth. He dismisses the four-year cycle as a rigid framework, favoring liquidity as the true driver of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Despite DeFi hacks like Drift, Hayes remains bullish on projects like Hyperliquid, crediting their real economic activity and tokenomics over hype alone. He emphasizes that retail participation, not institutions, will ultimately propel Bitcoin higher, and warns that the market remains constrained by a 'wall of worry'—including geopolitical tensions and AI-driven deflation—before a sustained bull run can begin.