Why Hasn't The Dollar Fallen? | Lessons from Currency Historian Barry Eichengreen
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In this episode of Bankless, host Ryan Selkis interviews renowned currency historian Barry Eichengreen about his new book, *Money Beyond Borders*, which traces the rise and fall of global currencies from ancient times to the present. Eichengreen explores how dominant currencies like the Roman denarius, Byzantine solidus, Spanish pieces of eight, and the U.S. dollar achieved international status through a combination of economic strength, political stability, rule of law, and military security. He argues that the dollar’s current dominance—though unprecedented in its longevity since going off the gold standard in 1971—is not guaranteed, especially as geopolitical tensions, fiscal imbalances, and the erosion of institutional checks and balances threaten its long-term sustainability. Drawing parallels from history, Eichengreen warns that currency decline often follows a slow, iceberg-like melt before a sudden collapse, driven by debasement, economic decline, or loss of trust. He also examines the potential of alternatives like gold, the renminbi, and cryptocurrencies, concluding that while no viable global alternative exists yet, the digital revolution may reshape the future of money through central bank digital currencies and tokenized assets. The episode ends with practical advice for investors: diversify, study history, and prepare for disruption in an era of shifting monetary dominance.
The U.S. dollar’s dominance is not eternal; historical patterns show that dominant currencies decline gradually before collapsing suddenly.
A strong international currency requires more than economic size—it needs political stability, rule of law, and credible institutions.
Gold remains a critical store of value and hedge against currency debasement, especially in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
No current alternative—like the renminbi or Bitcoin—can replace the dollar at scale due to political constraints and volatility.
The future of money likely lies in digital infrastructure: central bank digital currencies and tokenized bank deposits may become the new backbone of global finance.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Slow Decline of the Dollar: An Iceberg Analogy
“I think the analogy I sometimes use is like an iceberg, which melts very slowly until a whole chunk, big chunks calve off all at once.”
The Rise of the Spanish Pieces of Eight: First Global Currency
Eichengreen explains how Spanish silver coins, particularly the 'pieces of eight,' became the first true global currency due to massive silver production in Latin America, the Manila Galleon trade, and their widespread acceptance in China and beyond. Their durability and quality made them superior to local currencies.
The Byzantine Solidus: 700 Years of Stability
“The solidus surpassed even the U.S. dollar in the 1950s in terms of stability and intrinsic value.”
Preconditions for Global Currency Status
Eichengreen outlines the dual requirements for a currency to become global: economic and financial strength (size, liquidity, trade), and political stability (rule of law, checks and balances, military security). He emphasizes that even powerful empires like Rome fell when these checks failed.
The Fall of Dominant Currencies: Debasing, Defeat, and Decline
The episode examines historical patterns of currency decline—debasement, military defeat, and economic stagnation. Eichengreen notes that while the U.S. dollar has avoided these so far, the current political and fiscal environment poses new risks.
“If foreigners conclude that the people running the U.S. government are crazy and they're apt to do crazy things, and they flee from the dollar sooner rather than later... that's a scenario where interest rates shoot up, markets crash, and all kinds of dislocations occur.”
“I think the analogy I sometimes use is like an iceberg, which melts very slowly until a whole chunk, big chunks calve off all at once.”
“The shift from one dominant currency to another is rarely smooth. It comes with disruptions... the best defense against disruptions is diversification.”
Host
Guest
U.S. Dollar
other
Barry Eichengreen
person
Gold
other
Spanish Pieces of Eight
other
Federal Reserve
organization
Byzantine Solidus
other
Chinese Renminbi
other
Roman Denarius
other
Bitcoin
other
Pound Sterling
other
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