Waymo Needs Another OEM and Q4 Might Be Too Late

Waymo's expansion into San Antonio and Dallas Love Field underscores its dominance in the autonomous ride-hail market, yet the company faces a critical bottleneck: securing a second OEM partner to scale beyond Hyundai. Despite having a public partnership with Hyundai and tens of thousands of vehicles in service, the hosts argue that announcing another OEM by year-end is too late—especially if the goal is to deliver vehicles in 2027. The real urgency stems from the need for a low-cost, globally scalable platform, ideally with 800-volt charging architecture to enable faster turnaround and higher fleet utilization. The hosts highlight that Tesla’s CyberCab and its existing 800V infrastructure give it a hidden advantage, while Waymo’s reliance on overseas remote drivers and political roadblocks in San Francisco reveal systemic weaknesses. Meanwhile, China’s export-driven push of L2+ ADAS vehicles into Europe via the 'Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative' poses a strategic threat, but lacks transparency due to the Great Firewall. The episode concludes with skepticism toward companies like Wabi, which raised a billion dollars but offered no concrete roadmap, while Tesla’s FSD 14.3 shows promise despite persistent routing issues and continued reliance on remote drivers—signs that full autonomy remains a work in progress.