Making the Case America Was Winning in Iran

In this episode of Angry Planet, host Matthew Galt interviews Mohamed Saloum, assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, to examine the claim that the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran is strategically succeeding. Saloum argues that despite widespread media focus on the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the military campaign has achieved key strategic objectives: the decapitation of Iran’s top leadership, especially within the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), severe degradation of Iran’s missile production and command-and-control capabilities, and the containment of its nuclear program—particularly the 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium now reportedly trapped underground. He contrasts this with the failure of past agreements like the JCPOA, which he believes failed due to Iran’s continued enrichment and lack of transparency. Saloum emphasizes that while the war is not over, the U.S. and Israel have already shifted the balance of power in their favor, with regional allies like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain increasingly distancing themselves from Iran and even pushing for international action. However, he acknowledges the campaign’s moral and legal controversies, and warns that without a clear political plan for the aftermath, the U.S. risks losing domestic support and failing to achieve lasting peace. The episode concludes with a sobering reflection on the limits of air power and the potential for long-term instability if the conflict ends without a sustainable post-war framework. Key takeaways include: (1) The U.S.-Israel campaign has successfully degraded Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities through precision strikes and leadership decapitation; (2) Iran’s regional isolation is now near-total, with most neighbors expelling diplomats and refusing to support Tehran; (3) The JCPOA failed not due to inherent flaws, but because Iran exploited its window to advance its nuclear program; (4) The U.S. must now develop a clear political strategy for the post-war period to prevent Iran from regaining strategic leverage; (5) Regional allies like Bahrain are pushing for international force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling growing regional consensus against Iran’s actions; (6) Air power alone cannot achieve regime change, and without a ground strategy or political plan, the campaign risks becoming a prolonged stalemate; (7) Iran’s current behavior—such as imposing $2 million fees on ships—reveals a regime losing control and acting like a rogue actor; (8) The international community’s lack of support for Iran, even at the UN, underscores its diplomatic isolation.