Will there be enough fuel for Easter travel?

As Australia approaches the Easter holiday period, concerns are mounting over potential fuel shortages due to global disruptions in oil supply following the Iran war. Sol Kovonek, energy expert at MST Financial, explains that while current shortages are localized and driven by panic buying and logistical challenges, a more severe crunch is expected in the next two weeks as Australia exhausts its pre-war fuel reserves. With nearly 20% of global oil supply offline, the impact will first hit jet fuel and then diesel, threatening vital sectors like agriculture, mining, and transport. The government’s decision to halve fuel excise may provide short-term relief but risks increasing demand and inflation, potentially leading to higher interest rates. Australia’s leverage lies in its LNG exports, which trading partners like South Korea and Singapore depend on, giving the government diplomatic tools to secure fuel priority. However, if these efforts fail, rationing—similar to past oil shocks—could become necessary, with priority given to critical services and essential economic functions. Kovonek urges Australians to voluntarily reduce fuel use, emphasizing that every drop saved could help sustain food production and national resilience. The episode underscores a delicate balance between public reassurance and urgent preparation. While the government downplays the risk to avoid panic, behind-the-scenes efforts are underway to manage supply chains and demand. The key takeaway is that collective responsibility and voluntary conservation are critical to avoiding severe rationing. The situation highlights Australia’s vulnerability as a net fuel importer and the broader geopolitical consequences of energy weaponization. Ultimately, the path forward depends on international diplomacy, strategic resource leverage, and public cooperation.